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2016 Analysis On Cold Rolling Industry Development Prospect
Jan 07, 2017

Cold rolling industry supply and demand both improved

Prices must be supply and demand (expected) due to improved. In many application areas of cold rolled, the relative concentration of the main car (cold-rolled demand of about 19% per cent), home appliances (proportion of cold-rolled demand of about 8% per cent). Although coincided with Festival Qian consumption season overlay car? acquisition tax halved? policy cumulative effect, car, and appliances sales volume chain growth led cold rolled needs improved and insufficient odd, and appliances field channel inventory cumulative displayed terminal needs is not so good, but and in previous years by different of is, this year of cold rolled needs improved occurred in low supply, and low inventory (especially trade inventory) of background zhixia, which caused cold rolled products appeared stage tension situation, to introduction burning has cold rolled price first rebound of fuse.

Cold rolling industry short steady weakly, before market

Rally evolution of sustainability also depend on supply and demand. Short-term view, needs is still big probability improved but degree more weak, history data displayed, car appliances production December-February three months chain continuous growth of situation never appeared, and fill library needs actually in overdraft future actual needs, is expected to this round price rebound needs end support big probability to full cover whole February; supply aspects, although subject Yu environmental, and cash flow, factors short-term to fast recovery, but currently has at history low of cold rolled starts rate up elastic obviously more big. Therefore, this cold-rolled price rally can last up to February there is a big uncertainty. Medium-term view, cold rolled needs highlights only is 2016? acquisition tax halved? policy stimulus car production growth, while, according to 09-10 years? car countryside?, and acquisition tax halved? policy implementation experience, once stimulus holdings exit, car production growth quickly down; on the, in policy implementation of 2016, even relative optimistic assumed car production growth reached 20%, its by brings of cold rolled consumption incremental insufficient 4 million tons. Compare to demand, high-end product structure, and considerable premium over the years, cold is in iron and steel products only put in there is still ample spare capacity in the coming years, according to incomplete statistics, by 2016 the new cold-rolled automobile sheet production capacity at least up to nearly 5 million tons, while Baosteel Zhanjiang have failed to achieve in the future part, Rizhao steel and other large-scale project release. Therefore, in 2016 and beyond cold supply and demand are not optimistic.